Interest rates are about to start a long slow upward trend.  Will increasing interest rates effect sellers in this market?  Absolutely and much more than most home sellers realize.  I’ll explain why here and provide some solid evidence for your consideration if you hope to sell your home.  Obviously, this has great relevance to buyers, too.  Buyer’s know it’s a buyer’s market, but many sellers don’t realize how much money they could lose if they don’t sell now while interest rates are still at historical lows.  We all know that timing is everything, but that has never been more true than it is now for sellers.  Here is the main argument I make:  As interest rates increase, in order for a buyer to pay the same maximum monthly mortgage payment, the price of the home will have to decrease.  This is similar to the inverse relationship of bond prices and interest rates.

Interest Rates on an Upward Climb

Exactly when and how far mortgage interest rates will rise is unknown, but expert after reliable expert is predicting increasing interest rates.  The logic is beyond argument.  Federal, state, and municipal debts rage out of control.  Eleven states are on the verge of a financial crisis and possibly bankruptcy.  U.S. Bonds are at risk and major International buyers have registered their concerns in the markets.  The Feds are printing money with nothing to back up the dollar.  Spending is out of control but has reached epic proportions of irresponsibility.  So much for a rational fiscal policy.  The Federal Reserve arguably has lost its grip on monetary policy.  Banks and mortgage companies are on edge and have cut their loan portfolios to a fraction of what they were.  Buyers who are qualified have trouble satisfying ridiculous underwriter requirements.  Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are disasters and part of the problem.  Politicians have handicapped appraisers with laws that actually do the opposite of what they claimed they would do to help buyers and sellers.   There is a large shadow inventory of foreclosures that will increase the total inventory of homes for sale.

In this chart above, the point is made this way.  Today a home with a loan of $450,000 at current interest rates of 4.75% would cost a buyer $2,347 a month.  If that is the maximum loan the buyer qualifies for, or if that is the buyer’s personal budget maximum, the price of the home must decrease as interest rates increase.  Of course, if the seller is unwilling to reduce the price, this buyer simply does not buy.  As you can see in this chart if interest rates increase from 4.75% to just 5%, the equivalent selling price drops from $450,000 to $445,000.  Carry that to an interest rate of 7% and the selling price drops to $352,000.  That’s a pretty big loss for the seller.

Interest Rates Are Key

This chart demonstrates the same concept for increasing interest rates, but the chart shows the actual loss in equity (or selling proceeds).  The numbers are in thousands.  All of this means the buyer’s market will become even more of a buyer’s market.  It also means homeowners who want or need to sell must pay close attention to the timing and strategy for the sale of their home.  The point of this article is that among the many variables to consider, interest rates are about to begin increasing, and that alone will steal equity from sellers, because to sell, they will have to reduce their prices.

Interest Rates Kill Equity

A seller has a couple of logical options in this market and given the high probability that interest rates will increase.  Number one, he can do everything possible to sell now at a very reasonable price before he loses money as interest rates increase.  Number two, he can chose not to sell and hold onto his house for five to seven years as the market recovers, assuming that he has that financial option.  Number three, he can conclude that I’m all wet and ignore all the data.  Maybe he’ll get lucky.  Or not.

I’ll add this small note from 30 years in the real estate school of hard knocks:  Home sellers need knowledgeable and experienced professional real estate agents now more than ever.  I hope if you are trying to sell your home, you will call me up and invite me over for a cup of coffee and an interview.

These are tough times, and tough times call for hard decisions.  I hope this article helps in some small way for home sellers who understand that interest rates are going to begin increasing soon.

Possibly Related Posts:

• Words of Encouragement for the Real Estate Market and Economy
• Why is There So Much Confusion in the Markets?

None of us bought tickets for the roller coaster ride we are all riding.   We’ve been going up and down and wondering if we are at the bottom yet.   I have words of encouragement for you.

We are near the bottom, but not quite there yet.   Before it gets better, it must appear to get worse.   The worse will come in this fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2009 when many economic government reports (employment, consumer price index, industrial production, business inventories, housing sales, new construction, interest rates),   and thousands of corporations report their quarterly results, including earnings reports ((There will be thousands of disappointing earnings reports.   For example, here is a short list of just next week’s report to come:   On Monday, Halliburton will report before the market opens, and Dow member American Express, SanDisk and Texas Instruments will be out after the closing bell.   Several Dow components will be out with results on Tuesday, including 3M, Caterpillar, DuPont and Pfizer, all of which report before the start of trading.   Tuesday’s late results will be headlined by Yahoo!, with E*Trade, Boston Scientific and VMware earnings also on tap.   Wednesday will bring another busy earnings day, with Dow components AT&T, Boeing, McDonald’s and Merck all set to report in the morning.   Also due early Wednesday are quarterly results from ConocoPhillips, EMC, Freeport-McMoRan, Philip Morris and Wachovia.   After Wednesday’s close, tech giants Apple, Amazon.com and Baidu.com will report, in addition to Sallie Mae and Amgen.   Thursday will bring earnings releases from Dow component Altria, Bristol-Myers Squibb and UPS in the morning, among others. After the close, Microsoft will headline the late reports.   Friday’s release calendar is considerably lighter, with Ingersoll-Rand and Ericsson   headlining the earnings reports. )), losses, and layoffs.   Meanwhile, there will be more companies going into convervatorships or filing for bankruptcy protection.

Let’s admit the obvious right now.   All of that news will be ugly.   We know it will be.   How does the stock market and consumer sentiment react to ugly reports from the public and private sectors?   Like a child in Kindergarten, the stock market always tanks with bad news.   I can guarantee this is true.   It always is.

And then, it comes back.   While I am not big on governement intervention, we do have literally trillions of dollars that governments around the world have committed to shore up threatened markets.   Many industries and segments of our economy will struggle, and some companies will be gone when the roller coaster comes to a stop, but we will not only survive, we will eventually be thriving again.

Be of good cheer.   We will be okay.   For now, you and I need to take a deep breath and say, “This too shall pass.”

Possibly Related Posts:

• As Interest Rates Increase Sellers Will Lose Money
• Is A Double Dip Recession On The Horizon?
• Those Wall Street Tokers
• Where should I invest my money now?
• Cash is King, Stock is Not, Real Estate is a Buy

The experts are confused.   Bank presidents, University economics professors, CEO’s running multi-billion dollar International companies, large fund managers, execs of the federal reserve banks, and even our politicians are totally stumped by the chaos in the markets.   Exactly what is happening and why?   A brief chronological review of the fundamental facts actually helps to answer the why.

The mortgage market crumbled, the result of greed, lax standards for income verification, and sub-prime lending.   Partly because of that, but also being steered by it’s own forces, the real estate market hit the biggest speed bump in decades.   Foreclosures overwhelmed the capacity of institutions to handle the administrative nightmare.   FHA was tasked with the responsibility to handle foreclosure workouts but congress has refused to provide the $65 million FHA needs to hire staff.   Could it be congress is preoccupied with bigger problems at the moment?

In a parallel universe, but intimately connected to the mortgage market and the real estate industry, the banking industry started cracking under the pressure of massive miscalculations and mismanagement.   A small crack in the damn started to get wider–let’s call it the credit crunch.   (more…)

Possibly Related Posts:

• As Interest Rates Increase Sellers Will Lose Money
• Words of Encouragement for the Real Estate Market and Economy