A gloomy outlook of the housing market was forecast on June 10th, 2011 by Robert Shiller, known for his accurate predictions of the housing market crash before the real estate recession.  Schiller is the economist who co-founded the S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices.  He said a further decline in property values of 10 percent to 25 percent in the next five years “wouldn’t surprise me at all.”

Housing Market

Housing Market Prediction for Sequim

How will this forecast or negative outlook on the national housing market play out in the Sequim real estate market on the Olympic Peninsula?  What is the real estate market going to do in the Sequim area in the next 12 months to 36 months?

First, the Sequim housing market must be differentiated from the national housing market.  I think we could all agree that the real estate market is dramatically different in major cities around the U.S.  The Las Vegas market is completely different than the Anchorage market, as the Houston market is different than the Denver market, as the Miami market is different than the San Bernadino market.  And Sequim is different than any of those markets.  National statistics are useful for some purposes, but not in accurately predicting what will happen in some specific markets like the Sequim housing market.

Second, we have a small inventory of homes for sale (800+), and retirees continue to buy homes here every single month of the year and have every month during this entire recession. There is much more stability in this small market with the attraction that Sequim has become for retirees around the country.  Even in this recession, people are retiring and moving to Sequim as they have been planning for many years.  (more…)

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